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It’s not just the ratio of a circumference to the diameter of a circle. It shows up in statistics and, oddly enough, in the distance between a river’s path and its distance as the crow flies. Look at the map of the Brisbane River above. The blue line is the river while the red line is the direct distance. If you take the distance that the blue line travels with all the wiggles and bends in the river, then divide it by the distance of the red line, you should get a ratio approximating π. Will the ratio of the river exactly equal pi? But if you take the ratio of all rivers in the world, then average them together, you should get something pretty close to π.
The alarm bell immediately goes off in my head. Whoa, maybe I can use that for trading! So, I made a mad dash for the office. I mean seriously, like a full on sprint 30 feet racing to get a pen and paper. The idea for forex is a little different.
It’s possible for the price not to go anywhere in 50 bars. Analyze the Power of Pi in RR is one of my favorite analysis platforms. If you’d like to the code that, you can download it. Getting the price data is easy. Just go to MT4 and click File, Save. The currently selected chart can then save it’s data.
The R code opens up the csv and does the analysis. Each list will look like this after processing the MT4 data. The last step is to take the mean of the ratio column on the far right. The average of the values in the table is 0.
Now we’re on to something interesting! I’ve only analyzed a handful of charts so far. This isn’t conclusive, but it’s an interesting early observation. The probability distribution frequency histograms of these very different currency pairs appear to have equal slopes, if you normalize the frequency values. Engineers analyze signals like this and call it the signal to noise ratio. 2π as our assumed barrier, we now have a convenient way to categorize market conditions. 2π before accepting any trend trades, then approximately 1 in 5 trades should experience a significant trend.