What is Martingale and Is It Reasonable to Use It? If you write “martingale” in a search engine box, it will return a large number of pages with the description of this system. It is interesting that among others you will meet web-sites of online forex semi martingale system sports, which assure that this system works, all you need is entering your credit card number to start scooping up money.
The Martingale is a betting system in gambling. In case of win a gambler returns to the minimal bet. The simplest gamble for analyzing the Martingale is chuck-farthing. The chances to win and to lose are equal – the gambler wins if a coin comes up heads and loses if the coin comes up tails. In case of win return to the minimal bet. The Martingale can also be used in playing the roulette, betting on red or black. 50, because there is also Zero, still very close to it.
As applied to trading, the following variant of the game can be used. So in this article I will describe only the classical problem of tossing a coin with doubling the bet at a loss. Mathematical Part Let us conduct a mathematical calculation of the dependence of the loss probability on the possible profit at the game with a coin using the Martingale system. Each set with the amount of tosses less than k-1 returns the profit q. We get the function of the win dependence on N.
Suppose, in the result we want to double our capital. Conclusions of the Mathematical Part Frankly speaking, at the beginning of preparing calculations for this article I expected that the Martingale would increase the probability of loss. It appeared to be wrong and the risk of loss is not increased. Still this article very vividly describes the meaninglessness of using the Martingale. Of course, the ideal variant would be writing an Expert Advisor, trading by the same rules as in chuck-farthing and making sure that theoretical and experimental data are identical.
That is why it is impossible to write an Expert Advisor, vividly proving the above formulas. Nevertheless, for completeness of analysis, we still can write an Expert Advisor, using the Martingale. But here the starting bet will be fixed – 0. Analogous, the bet will be doubled at a loss and return to the starting one at profit. The above screenshot displays the results of testing this Expert Advisor. You see, though the general direction of the curve is upwards, from time to time it suffers large dips.
As a result of the last dip the Expert Advisor stops trading, because the balance is not enough for the next bet with a doubled lot. And at the moment of stop the balance is positive – here is the difference from the theoretical calculation in “the mathematical part”. The files attached contain the screenshot of all necessary mathematical calculations and the Expert Advisor. All rights to these materials are reserved by MQL5 Ltd. Copying or reprinting of these materials in whole or in part is prohibited.