Tidbits – written forex brokers affected by swiss franc to us dollar market expert Joe Ross. Sometimes these reports agree and sometimes disagree. What is your opinion on the sentiment reports?
Although these reports sound scientific, nothing about the trading markets can be measured with scientific precision. There is no practical purpose for measuring a market precisely and most market measurement is at best only a rough estimate. When we measure futures markets, we are basically also measuring human behavior, and human behavior is not easily measured. When it comes to forecasting financial market conditions or market sentiment it makes no sense to strive for extreme accuracy. Commodities futures and forex market prices are based on human opinion. An estimate of trader or investor opinion is merely a guess because not everyone has the exact same opinion, and because it is difficult to accurately measure an opinion.
The best a commodities market sentiment report can offer is a statement of probability based on a few important assumptions. Let’s face it a sentiment report assumes that the universe being measured is actually real. Another assumption is that the measurement of the opinion is reliable. I have seen this phenomenon in action. When I owned a farm and mingled with other farmers at various meetings, it was obvious that the farmers never told the county agent their true planting intentions. The assumption that the universe was real was often met because the agent did indeed poll farmers.