Over the decades I’ve been on both sides of it at various times. I made all of the arguments, and then some. After all, if you just avoided the obvious dogs bitcoin clipart’d do better than average, right?
Who would be stupid enough to own GM a couple of years ago? Hindsight is a beautiful and perfect thing. Convinced I could win this game, after all I’d just bought a stock that tripled, I even took a major pay cut to join an investment research firm mid-career. There I was, surrounded by exceedingly bright people. Each focused on one, maybe two industries and perhaps 6-10 stocks. They knew each of these companies inside and out.
They knew the middle-managers and the front line people. They spoke to them all weekly. But they did know exactly when and how the info would be released. Of course, so did every other competent analyst around the world. Any new information was reflected in the stock price within minutes. They issued reports our institutional investor clients paid dearly for. And yet, predicting stock performance remained frustratingly elusive.